Central Park 4:16 PM whale tape

Kalshi KXHIGHNY-26JUL13 · brackets 82–83 / 84–85 (and 86–87) · focus window 4:15–4:20 PM EDT. Informational only

Regulatory: This article is research and education about public market tape and NWS climate products. It does not recommend buying, selling, or holding any contract. Not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi or the NWS.

Bottom line

Yes — it was a whale footprint. A single aggressive multi-leg sweep at 4:16:15.740 PM EDT repriced the book in under 300 ms (84–85 YES roughly 45→96¢, then toward 99¢; 82–83 crushed). They were not inventing a phantom METAR: NWS afternoon CLINYC later printed MAXIMUM 84°F at 1:41 PM, while ASOS/METAR peaked near ~82.9°F and was already cooling. If CLI/CF6 holds at 84, the package likely wins with a thin edge (~+$350 on ~$10k). If final were 83 (METAR-like), it is a near-total loss (~−$10k). Settlement follows climate MAX — not live METAR.

4:16:15.740

Primary sweep (EDT)

84°F @ 1:41 PM

CLI preliminary MAX

~82.9°F

METAR T-group peak

+18 min

Sweep before public CLI text

Was it a whale?

Public trades do not show account IDs, so we cannot name a trader. The footprint is a classic one-order / few-order taker sweep across three tickers in the same ~260 ms window — not organic retail chatter.

Whale evidence (public tape)

Signal	Observation
Same millisecond	B84.5, B82.5, and B86.5 all print starting 16:16:15.740–.785 EDT
Multi-fill book wipe	~46 YES fills on 84–85 spanning ~45→96¢ in one burst
Cross-bracket	~51 NO fills on 82–83 (YES 55→1¢) plus ~33 YES fills on 86–87 at 1–5¢
Timestamps vs fills	4:15–4:20: 156 fills / 36 timestamps on 84–85; the burst dominates
Taker side	Aggressive YES on 84–85 & 86–87; aggressive NO on 82–83

Wave breakdown (approximate taker flow)

Wave	84 YES	82 NO	86 YES
W0 16:16:05 probe	~21 @ 45¢	—	—
W1 16:16:15 primary	~523 @ ~84¢ VWAP (45–96¢)	~5,350 @ ~96¢ NO	~1,263 @ ~2¢
W2 climb toward 99	~931 @ ~97¢	—	—
W3 scoop @ 99	~3,904 @ 99¢	—	—

W1 is the decisive multi-ticker footprint. Later 99¢ size may be the same actor mopping residual liquidity or fast followers — public tape cannot separate them cleanly.

Timeline (84–85 YES)

EDT	Fills	Vol	YES taker	YES ¢
16:15:08	10	244	244	28–32
16:16:05	1	21	21	45
16:16:15	53	1,274	523	45–96
16:16:16–32	6	140	138	95–96
16:16:37	14	793	793	96–99
16:17:04	48	3,904	3,904	99

W1 cost basis (first ~260 ms on 84–85): ~523.5 contracts, ~$440, VWAP ~84.1¢ — then W2/W3 lift the package VWAP as residual offers are lifted into the high 90s.

How much did they make / stand to make (or lose)?

Settlement source (not METAR): series rules point to the highest temperature for Central Park as reported by the NWS Climatological Report (Daily) / CLI family. Afternoon CLI MAX is the climate figure markets watch intraday; official CF6 usually posts the next morning and can in principle revise.

If CLI / CF6 MAX = 84°F

~+$354

84–85 YES pays $1; 82–83 NO pays $1; 86–87 YES worthless. Est. combined W0–W3 taker P&L on ~$10.4k capital — thin edge because most size paid near 96–99¢. W0–W2 only (excl. W3 scoop): ~1,476 YES @ ~91.7¢ VWAP plus 82 NO edge.

If CF6 MAX = 83°F (METAR-like)

~−$10,376

84–85 YES → $0; 82–83 NO → $0; 86–87 YES → $0. Full premium lost on the modeled taker stack. Afternoon CLINYC already showed 84 as of 4:00 PM LST (issued 4:34 PM). Revision risk exists until official CF6, but a one-degree drop after a printed MAX is uncommon.

Figures are reconstruction from public trades for illustration only — not a P&L statement for any account.

How did they find a different price / temperature? (CLI vs METAR)

They did not need a secret thermometer that differed from all of NOAA — they needed the settlement number, which diverged from the METAR traders often watch on mobile weather apps.

Source	Peak / reading	Around 4:16 PM	Settles?
KNYC METAR / T-group	28°C body · T0283 ≈ 82.9°F	Latest hourly ~81°F; cooling	No
IEM hourly tmpf	83°F at 1:51 PM	Suggests 82–83 bracket	No
6-hr max remark 10283	28.3°C ≈ 82.9°F	Not an 84°F signal	No
NWS `CLINYC` (CLI)	MAXIMUM 84°F at 1:41 PM	Public text ~4:34 PM — after the sweep	Yes (same family as CF6)

Product ID context: CLINYC · CDUS41 KOKX 132034 · issued 4:34 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026 — MAX 84 at 141 PM. The sweep printed ~18 minutes before that public CLI text was available.

Interpretation

Pre-sweep, tape and METAR both pointed at a cooling day with an ~83°F ASOS peak — markets leaned 82–83. The reprice was reacting to (or anticipating) the climate/CLI MAX of 84, not a hotter live METAR. Public CLINYC confirming 84 landed ~18 minutes later; the aggressor either had a faster climate feed (WRH/timeseries, AWIPS-class, early CLI) or correctly modeled the known Central Park climate-vs-ASOS gap.

Thin-book speculation alone is a weak explanation: the order simultaneously bought 84–85, bought NO on 82–83 in size, and scooped cheap 86–87 lottery — a directional settlement package, not a random momentum poke.

Answers at a glance

Question	Answer
1. Whale move the market?	Yes. Sub-second multi-fill, multi-ticker taker sweep at 16:16:15.740; later 99¢ scoop added size.
2. Make / lose?	Not a loss if CLI/CF6 MAX stays 84 (estimated modest profit). Large loss only if official high is 83 (or anything outside 84–85).
3. Different temperature?	Settlement CLI 84°F vs METAR ~83°F. Flow priced the climate report ~18 min before the public 4:34 PM CLI text.

Takeaways for PredictCast readers

Settlement ≠ METAR. For city daily highs, the climate report (CLI/CF6) is the official MAX. Live ASOS/METAR is excellent nowcast context and can still disagree with settlement by a full degree.
Mid-day CLI matters. When NWS issues an afternoon climate summary, that MAXIMUM is already the best public “reported max” for the event day until CF6 finalizes.
Tape can price the climate number early. Aggressive multi-leg flow can appear before the CLI PDF/text is on forecast.weather.gov — informational, not a strategy.
Use both columns in Temps Now. Keep METAR for the intraday chart; treat climate/CLI reported max as the settlement-aware headline when a CLI has printed.

Sources: Kalshi public trades for KXHIGHNY-26JUL13; AviationWeather / IEM / NWS station observations for KNYC; NWS CLI product CLINYC (OKX). Analysis prepared for wxmap.io / PredictCast. © wxmap.io — informational only; not financial advice.